The Morning After- What Chris Christie's Win In NJ REALLY Means

The breakdown at 8:00am on Wednesday, November 4th, the morning after Chris Christie was elected the 55th governor of New Jersey (with 99% of the vote counted);

Chris Christie (R) received 1,140,134 votes (49%)
Jon Corzine (D)received 1,040,404 votes (45%)
Chris Daggett(I) received 132,919 votes (6%)

(Source- NJ.com )

Going into election day most polls had Christie slightly ahead by 2 percent or less. In some polls Chris Daggett was in double digits, while Jon Corzine remained static. Every indication was that the next governor of New Jersey would be elected with less than 45% of the vote.

Daggett's support was softer than most polls indicated. At last moment it appears that many voters shifted their votes to Christie to give him a larger margin of victory than anticipated.

Christie's win, with less than 50% of the vote, indicates less an endorsement of him than a repudiation of Jon Corzine. This election showed an electorate that was less than enthusiastic about the candidates.

The one major issue that won this election for Chris Christie was property taxes, followed closely the economy, then corruption, then health care (according to exit polls compiled for the print edition of the Star-Ledger).

WHAT THIS WAS NOT ABOUT (using the same exit polls from the Star-Ledger)- this WAS NOT a referendum about Barack Obama.

When asked Was one reason for your vote for governor today: to express support for Barack Obama 19% responded in the affirmative.

When asked Was one reason for your vote for governor today to express opposition to Barack Obama 19% said yes.

A whopping 60% said that Barack Obama was not a factor.

(Source- Star-Ledger print edition, page 15, left hand column, 11/4/09).

One thing President Obama's appearances did do in New Jersey was to galvanize the hard core conservative base, as admitted last night on News 12 New Jersey by ultra conservative former candidate for governor Steve Lonegan.The bottom line was they were backing Christie anyway so "The Obama Factor" was awash in New Jersey.

The usual suspects on the right will make this about Obama, but it wasn't. It was about a sagging economy that has yet to recover substantially, high property taxes, and a governor who was not very popular with his electorate, or to some degree within his own Democratic Party.

Consider this; New Jersey is a bell weather state- and the bell weather of that bell weather is Middlesex County, the crossroads of the state. The northern half, above the Raritan River, is semi-urban- on clear crisp days you can practically reach out and touch the skyline of Manhattan. The Southern half of the county gives way to farms and open spaces. It is traditionally blue- mainly working class Democrats descended from the immigrants from the early 20th century, mixed in with African Americans who came North from the rural South in the Industrial Age, and more recent arrivals from Latin America, the Caribbean, and Asia.

Middlesex is a Democratic stronghold; and incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine lost to Chris Christie by about 5,000 votes. But there's more; when you factor in the 12,000 votes Chris Daggett received in Middlesex County, 183,000 votes cast in total, Jon Corzine only got 48.6% of the vote. An election result like that happens in Middlesex maybe once every 20 years.

If anything, this was a bad year to be an incumbent or a member of an incumbent party. Corzine found that out, as was in the case in Virginia. Even more telling about the fragility of the incumbency is what happened across the Hudson in New York. Incumbent Mayor Mike Bloomberg (I) was supposed to clobber Democratic challenger Bill Thompson by double digits- few outside of New York even had a clue who Bloomberg was running against. Yet when the dust settled Bloomberg won by only 5%, 51 to 46%. If there had been a Republican incumbent running in New Jersey or in Virginia, there might have been the same result; the challenger wins. People are scared- and its still about the economy, stupid....and not about anything else.

So let the spinners spin away....that's what they get paid to do. Even if most of them don't have a clue about what really won or lost in New Jersey.

In closing- As stated before, I'm not going to root for Governor elect Christie to fail. I don't suck my thumb, I don't stamp my feet, and I left the third grade a whole lot of years ago.

And by the way- I don't even really like to drink tea...putting ground up leaves in little bags is so silly. Wearing them as a fashion accessory is even sillier.

The stakes in New Jersey are too high. We need a successful four years from our next governor.

Good luck, Mr. Christie.

AP; Its Christie As New Jersey's New Governor

The Associated Press has declared Republican challenger Chris Christie the winner in the New Jersey Governor's race with a 49% to 45% lead over Democratic challenger Jon Corzine. Independent Chris Daggett was a distant third with 5% of the vote. The anticipated double digit vote for Daggett never materialized and appears to have been switched to Christie at the last minute. Daggett has conceded to Christie, and has also contacted the Corzine camp.

At 10:37PM New Jersey Network has said that Governor Corzine has yet to concede to Christie.

At 10:42 NJN shows Christie with 49%, Corzine with 45% and Daggett with 5%. With 90% of the vote counted NJN's Political Director Michael Aron has declared Chris Christie as New Jersey's next governor.

I'm a member of the opposition party....and I want to congratulate Governor Elect Christie on his victory. And best of luck to our new governor.

And to Governor Jon Corzine...thank you for fighting the good fight.

Update Corzine delivering concession speech as I type this (10:59PM).

My Pick For New Jersey Governor- Jon Corzine

This may not be a shock to those who regularly read this blog, but when I go into that voting both tomorrow morning I will cast my ballot for the incumbent Governor, Jon Corzine.

What may surprise you is that I seriously considered voting for the independent candidate, Chris Daggett. Daggett is a man with an idea that just could work as far as reducing the $8 billion budget gap that is anticipated this year. But the reality of the situation is, Daggett is stuck at around 10% of the vote- his chances of winning are next to non-existent.

Chris Christie, the Republican challenger to Corzine, was a stellar federal prosecutor; one of the best our region has ever seen. I think he's a good and decent man- but I don't believe in his agenda for fixing New Jersey's problems. What's even more problematic for me is I don't believe that Christie believes in the very solutions he's offering. Its the old Republican recipe of "I'll reduce government and cut taxes"...only government never gets reduced under Republicans in New Jersey, taxes are cut usually- and then there is a deficit to be dealt with by the next administration.

As far as the mantra that Christie will reduce property taxes....how? Its up to the municipalities to do that. He can make suggestions, but no governor can overtly interfere in the affairs of a municipal government; its unethical, and may be illegal.

Which gets us back to Jon Corzine. He had an agenda to get New Jersey back on its feet economically in his first term- he didn't get it done. But much of that can be attributed to 300 years of New Jersey's reliance on home rule; municipalities need to merge and/or share services. The economic crisis of 2008 was the other shoe that dropped. It didn't help a shakey situation in the Garden State.

Hopefully a second term under Corzine, where he wouldn't have to be concerned with running for re-election, can accomplish some things that need to be done, mainly a radical restructuring of government services on local, county, and state levels that would reduce the tax burden on New Jersey's property owners, which is among the nation's worst.

If there's one thing that you'll notice in this post I hope its this- I refrain from the idiotic and vitriolic name calling and labeling that too often goes on blogs of a political nature. I have friends and family who are light years away from me in my politics- but relationships cannot be based on politics alone. To hate and repudiate someone because of their political stance is as wrong and pig headed as to hate because of religion, skin color, or sexual orientation.

Tomorrow, the next governor of New Jersey will win with something in the neighborhood of 40% of the vote, give or take. If Corzine wins, some will crow that this is an endorsement of the Obama administration. If its Christie, the "usual suspects"- mainly right wing media gas bags- will see this as a reudiation of Obama and his policies.

To either side who tries this, I'll say it right now....its a load of crap, plain and simple. Its about what's going on in New Jersey, not DC, or in Virginia..its not referendum on anyone or anything outside of the confines of this state.

And don't allow anyone to tell you otherwise, because of they do they're either stupid, or they're lying.

And to the winner, to whom ever that may be...the people will have spoken.

Our next governor will be a man whom as many as 60% of the voters did not vote for.

Hopefully the best man will win.